In a bit of a surprise this weekend, the box office has found itself a three-way race for the number one movie of the weekend.  For now, studio estimates place “Date Night” at number one with $27.1 million, with ‘Clash of the Titans’ following very close, as well as a very strong hold from ‘How to Train Your Dragon.’  Final figures tomorrow evening will decide which film is the actual victor.

Apologies for my recent absence over the past few weekends.  College and whatnot can get in the way of things.  Anyways, Easter weekend was huge–the biggest ever–actually as “Clash of the Titans’ led the box-office with $61 million, and other huge followers also fared very well.  Tyler Perry’s ‘Why Did I Get Married Too’ opened well to $29.2 million, and ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ was almost too close behind at $29.0 million.  Add in a little Miley Cyrus movie, as well as ‘Alice’ and friends still holding onto a top 5 spot, and last weekend was pretty darn massive for this time of the year.  Expect this weekend to pale in comparison.

Luckily that’s not all bad news as Fox Studios gets the weekend all to themselves as far as new releases go.  “Date Night” opens with bankable star Steve Carell pairing with hot commodity Tina Fey as a middle-aged couple taking another couple’s dinner reservation at a restaurant and finding themselves pulled into a case of mistaken-identity and a night of action and adventure.  The movie looks to please several crowds.  Carell has seen his share of box-office success (Evan Almighty-$100 million, Get Smart- $130 million, The 40-Year-Old Virgin- $109 million), while Tina Fey has ‘Baby Mama’ at decent $60 million and ‘Mean Girls’ at $86 million.  Both actors are more famous for their small-screen work on NBC.  Carell headlines ‘The Office,’ and Fey is the star of ‘30 Rock,’ probably the two most popular ’sitcoms’ on television.  Teaming them up is huge, and on that basis, this movie should deliver as such.  Serving as the perfect ‘date’ movie, providing both action, romance, and big laughs, and receiving unexpectedly good reviews, I predict a $36 million opening or more.

As for holdovers… look for major drops. “Clash of the Titans’ had a 3D boost that seems to be working against it at this point.  While those funky glasses may have added some bucks during its opening weekend, the 3D factor has been given about as much praise as the critics have given the movie, which is to say the feedback is not positive–at least for the 3D.  Sure, critics are hating the movie, but action fans seem to be liking it well enough.  I still want to get out and see it, but won’t waste the money on the supposedly poor 3D.  Add another $26 million this weekend, bringing its domestic total to an impressive $110 million after 2 weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon may have taken the back seat to Tyler Perry’s fun last weekend, but that’ll change this weekend.  ‘Dragon’ will hold well as the year’s best-reviewed movie, and Perry’s movie will drop hugely as his flicks always do.  Expect another $20 million for the flying animated beasts ($127 million total) and $14 million for ‘Married Too’ ($51 million total).

Rounding out the top 10, give Miley Cyrus/Nicholas Sparks $8.5 million for ‘The Last Song’ ($40 million total), ‘Hot Tub Time Machine’ $5 million ($36 million total), ‘Alice and Wonderland’ another $4.5 million ($318 million total), ‘Diary of a Wimpy Kid’ $2.5 million ($51 million total), and ‘Shutter Island’ $1 million ($125 million total).

Alice and friends are back at number one for two straight weekends, as if anyone would be surprised.  It has now become the first film this year to cross $200 million, and $300 million may be showing up soon as well.  In fact the only real surprise this weekend has to be “Green Zone,” a Matt Damon action-thriller that looked a little more promising than the $14.5 million it took in over the weekend.  It could potentially have some legs as its only real competition in the action genre this coming weekend is “Repo Men” which is more of a gory sci-fi niche thriller and poses little threat to “Green Zone,” giving the Iraq thriller a few weekends to hold some traction until April 2nd, when Clash of the Titans 3D dominates theaters.  Check out the Estimates Chart below for more box-office numbers.

It turns out that not even Paul Greengrass and Matt Damon can elevate the Iraq action picture genre.  Instead of banking on ‘Hurt Locker’ Oscar wins and its “Bourne Ultimatum/Supremacy” brand name in the marketing, “Green Zone” opens no better than its look-alikes “The Kingdom” and “Body of Lies.”  Earning $5 million yesterday, it looks to earn no more than $15 million for the weekend, a major disappointment for the $100 million film. Too bad, it’s actually a good movie.
Twi-hards ditched out of Rob Pattinson’s newest film “Remember Me.” Perhaps the marketing didn’t get out well-enough to the intended audience or its audience simply doesn’t care to see him without fangs.  Either way, the film made $3.5 million yesterday, on its way to $9 million for the weekend.

“She’s Out of My League” has a decent Friday with $3.3 million, also on its way to about $9 million, a solid number for a movie without any recognizable names.

Forest Whitaker and Ugly Betty take in $2.5 million with “Our Family Wedding,” and may end up with $7 million for the weekend.  Look for this one to disappear very quickly.

The big holdover of course is “Alice in Wonderland,” down 58% from last Friday to $17.4 million.  Look for $55 million in the three-day frame, for $201 million in ten days.

You wouldn’t believe it, but 4 new flicks are hitting theaters this weekend… and I’ve only really seen promotion for two of them.  No matter what, none of the openers are taking down the Depp-Burton surprise juggernaut that is “Alice in Wonderland.”

The most likely success of the four new releases is the Iraq-War actioner “The Bourne Zone” “Green Zone” starring Matt Damon under the direction of Paul Greengrass of “Bourne Ultimatum/Supremacy” fame (he was also nominated for a directing Oscar for “United 93″ a few years ago).  Now that Greengrass and Damon have become somewhat of a go-to team by their third outing, 2010 is shaping up to be a year of actor-director duos after the Scorsese-DiCaprio hit “Shutter Island” and the Burton-Depp blockbuster “Alice in Wonderland.”  Following in the footsteps of those films- “Green Zone” has a lot going for it.  Of course the marketing is promoting this pretty much as the latest “Bourne” entry, even confusing some viewers into thinking so with readings such as: “From the Director of The Bourne Ultimatum”…”and star Matt Damon.”  That should bode well for box-office potential as audiences are pining for a new entry in that action-series, which apparently is going to happen anymore.  I wouldn’t expect Bourne-style numbers this weekend of $70 million or $52 million, but tying in the recognition factor will surely help.  Also, the flick is coming hot off the heels of the Oscar wins for the comparable film “The Hurt Locker.”  Add in the action-genre and Matt Damon as a reliable star in vehicles like these, and things are looking solid.  The drawbacks, however, include the fact that the action and plot aren’t shining through in the previews.  The plot has something to do with Damon’s military character discovering that the U.S. government fabricated the whole WMD’s scenario back in 2003, and ‘boom goes the dynamite.’  Reviews have also been right down the middle with critics complaining that the film is dated and should have been made five or six years ago.  Then again, Roger Ebert is raving about it–giving it a whopping 4-stars and striking back with “it’s a thriller, not a documentary.”  On top of that, the R-rating could hinder some of the potential Bourne-fan audience members under 17.  All-in-all, I expect bigger numbers than the similar Russell Crowe/Leonardo DiCaprio/Ridley Scott Iraq thriller “Body of Lies” from 2008.  That film opened to a paltry $12.8 million on its way to $39 million.  “Green Zone” should have a bigger impact.  I’m looking for a solid $24 million or more.

Next up is “Remember Me,” as Twlight’s Robert Pattinson tests his solo bankability without all the white makeup.  I don’t know much about the plot, but apparently it’s the latest James Dean-esque pop film for tweens eyeballing some romance.  With “Dear John” and “Valentine’s Day” fading, and twi-hards itching their neck bites until June 30th when “Eclipse” opens, “Remember Me” might suffice for now as a satisfactory drool-fest.  I don’t see much star-power for Pattinson in a small film like this, so give it $12 million.

R-rated youth comedy hits this weekend with “She’s Out of My League,” which is surprisingly getting reviews on par with “Green Zone.”  Nobody seems to raving exactly, but it’s getting better marks than I expected.  Still there’s little star-power in this film with that geeky guy from “Knocked Up.”  He plays another geeky guy hooking up with ‘the perfect-ten’ girl.  I don’t think this genre succeeds without major buzz, glowing reviews, or ample star power.  This movie seems to have none of that despite some decent reviews.  My guess is it’s a $7.5 million opener.

Academy Award-winner Forest Whitaker is hitting the fast-track this month with two films of his being released on consecutive weekends.  Tomorrow he delivers “Our Family Wedding,” a look-alike of the Bernie Mac/Ashton Kutcher vehicle “Guess Who.”  This film also stars the girl that plays “Ugly Betty” on the hit comedy series.  Honestly, the early reviews say it’s atrocious and forgettable so I expect next-to-nothing from this one.  I could be dead-wrong here about the appeal, but I literally haven’t seen one commercial for this.  I’ll give it $5 million at best.

Ah, now to those good old holdovers.  Well, “Alice” and folks blew everyone away.  With its huge opening, I’m expecting a sizable drop as this isn’t an “Avatar”-style try-it-out and see before word-of-mouth explosion.  No, the $116 million was obviously somewhat of a fan rush.  However, there is virtually no competition for families or any other event films.  I’m gathering another $55 million for the weekend, bringing the Disney flick up to about $200 million by Sunday.

I’m surprised that “Brooklyn’s Finest” didn’t disappoint much with its respectable $13.5 million opening–a solid number for the dirty cop genre.  Now that “Green Zone” enters the R-rated action-mix, I predict it’ll fall to $6.5 million for about $24 million total after ten days.

“Shutter Island” faces some competition with “Green Zone” as well.  The good news is that the film will become the third Scorsese-DiCaprio film to cross $100 million. It seems the studio made the right decision in moving the picture out of the October, 2009 slot and into the less busy February slot of 2010.  Give the duo another $7 million for $106 million in the bag–making it also the third film to cross $100 million domestically this year.

Kevin Smith, Bruce Willis, Tracy Morgan and Stifler are still hanging around multiplexes.  After a 49% decline last weekend, “Cop Out” has a lot of R-rated competition, violence and comedy-wise.  The declines should be heftier this weekend.  It’ll probably lose over 50% of its audience this weekend for $4.5 million as it approaches the $40 million mark.

Finally, “Avatar” missed out on the Best Picture Oscar last Sunday, which doesn’t give it any chances to regain some momentum.  “Alice in 3D” is now the big ticket, and Cameron’s reign will likely fade pretty quickly at this point. It’ll probably take a 45% drop to about $4.5 million, bringing the domestic cume to $727.5 million.

As usual, stay posted for further updates this weekend, and don’t forget to check out our reviews at walkingtaco.com!

-MJV & the Movies

Forget my $74 million prediction… (And I thought I was worried about being on the high-end of predictions!)  “Alice in Wonderland” rocked it this weekend, earning $116 million over the three day frame, and a total of $210 million worldwide.  Kudos to Johnny Depp and Tim Burton.  Their latest collaboration has instantly become their most successful together.

“Brooklyn’s Finest” can even brag a little bit.  Bringing in $13.5 million, the cop thriller fared better than other recent cop drama like “Street Kings” and “We Own the Night.”  If it holds decently over the next few weekends it could make around $35 million or more against a $25 million budget–which was far better than the $20 million total I predicted.

Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” dipped to $13.3 million for a $95 million total.  By next weekend it will be the third film of 2010 to cross $100 million.

“Cop Out” fell 50% to $9.1 million and $32 million total.  The poorly reviewed action-comedy has become Kevin Smith’s biggest hit and has already surpassed its production budget of $30 million.  It looks to score about $45-50 million total, becoming a moderate success. Aside from his franchise entry “Live Free or Die Hard” and his ensemble work in 2005’s “Sin City,” this will be Bruce Willis’ biggest starring role hit since 2000’s “Unbreakable.”

“Avatar” is still hanging around in the top 5 even after losing its IMAX venues and many of its 3D screens to “Alice in Wonderland.”  The special-effects feast dropped by its widest margin yet–almost 44%–to give it $7.7 million for the weekend and $720 million total.  Perhaps a Best Picture win tonight will give it a boost, but we’ll see what happens.  I don’t think anyone’s complaining the film isn’t making enough money.

The zombie-thriller “The Crazies” dropped an expected 56% from last weekend to earn another $7 million this weekend and has amassed a respectable $27.4 million total so far.  The film only cost $20 million to make and might end up with about $40 million.

Julia Roberts and company dipped another 53% with “Valentine’s Day,” earning $4.2 million over the weekend.  The domestic total now stands at $106.4 million against a $52 million budget.  Not bad for a one-weekend wonder.  Keep in mind it opened to $63 million over its first 4 days of release.

Jeff Bridges is only hours away from taking home his first Academy Award.  The box-office revenue responded for “Crazy Heart” over the weekend.  The film leaped ahead by a surging 36% increase over the weekend to $3.4 million, for a $29.5 million total so far.  The film has now passed last year’s very similar “The Wrestler” which had earned $26 million.

“Dear John” closes out the top ten with a 41% dip to $2.8 million for $76 million total against a budget of $25 million.  The film is a big success for ScreenGems studios.

Next weekend see four new releases, and among them only one stands out.  That is “Green Zone,” a military actioner with marketing tricking audiences into thinking it’s a new Bourne installment.  That’ll probably earn it some serious dough as it reunites Director Paul Greengrass and his “Bourne Supremacy/Ultimatum” star Matt Damon, and looks to be pretty good. Reviews will soon tell.  Check back tomorrow for final studio numbers for the weekend, and don’t forget about my Live Blog of the Oscars tonight as well as my Pre-Oscar Analysis and Best of 2009 list over at walkingtaco.com!

As for “Brooklyn’s Finest,” even that opened to a decent $4.7 million and could wind up with $14 million–not fantastic, but still a better opening than I anticipated.  I’m curious to see the studio estimates tomorrow for both of these movies.

Just a quick note on the potential demise of Avatar–well, there is no demise for the movie potentially about to win Best Picture tomorrow night.  Even losing most of its 3-D screens, it only dipped 36% from last Friday.  Look for $8.2 million this weekend.

Check back tomorrow for the studio weekend estimates, and don’t forget about the live blog of the Oscars tomorrow night over at walkingtaco.com!